I’m not super worried. Maybe this is because I am old enough that I grew up with a perception that nuclear war could happen at any time and unexpectedly kill us all. The current threat level feels like a return to the Cold War: something could happen, but MAD still works and Putin, like everyone else, doesn’t really have anything to gain from all out nuclear war, but does have something to gain from playing chicken. So we should expect a lot of posturing but probably no real action, except by accident.
In think the largest risk of nuclear weapons comes from the use of tactical nukes being used in the conflict zones. I would expect Putin to use them if he felt desperate enough, especially since he would use them on Ukrainian soil. But presumably no nukes would be deployed on NATO countries or Russia itself since that would trigger all out nuclear retaliation. So most of the nuclear risk probably falls on people literally within Ukraine.
There is a theory that Putin is terminally ill and could therefore be open to taking the rest of the world with him. I don’t know how much weight to put on it.
Even if he wants to do that, his power is not absolute. I’d expect/hope for his generals to step in if he tries something like that, perhaps using it as reason for a coup.
I’m not super worried. Maybe this is because I am old enough that I grew up with a perception that nuclear war could happen at any time and unexpectedly kill us all. The current threat level feels like a return to the Cold War: something could happen, but MAD still works and Putin, like everyone else, doesn’t really have anything to gain from all out nuclear war, but does have something to gain from playing chicken. So we should expect a lot of posturing but probably no real action, except by accident.
In think the largest risk of nuclear weapons comes from the use of tactical nukes being used in the conflict zones. I would expect Putin to use them if he felt desperate enough, especially since he would use them on Ukrainian soil. But presumably no nukes would be deployed on NATO countries or Russia itself since that would trigger all out nuclear retaliation. So most of the nuclear risk probably falls on people literally within Ukraine.
There is a theory that Putin is terminally ill and could therefore be open to taking the rest of the world with him. I don’t know how much weight to put on it.
Even if he wants to do that, his power is not absolute. I’d expect/hope for his generals to step in if he tries something like that, perhaps using it as reason for a coup.