On a separate small point, I think your probability estimate for ESP is too low, for two reasons:
Firstly, it is a taboo topic (like UFOs and the Loch Ness monster), which scientists are therefore far more likely to dismiss from a position of ignorance, or with weakish arguments (e.g. ‘it lacks an explanatory mechanism’, ‘much of the research methodology is flawed’, or ‘some of the research has been on fraudsters’ - hardly disproof). Few skeptics have domain expertise, i.e. of having conducted or investigated research in the area.
Secondly, ESP covers quite a range of rather distinct phenomena. Only one has to be right for ESP to be true. And I’m not sure that all would require completely novel scientific principles (e.g. unknown physical forces); and the fact that our understanding of physics has gaps, and our understanding of consciousness certainly does, may well leave room for some form of ESP to be compatible with current science (not that that is essential).
On a separate small point, I think your probability estimate for ESP is too low, for two reasons:
Firstly, it is a taboo topic (like UFOs and the Loch Ness monster), which scientists are therefore far more likely to dismiss from a position of ignorance, or with weakish arguments (e.g. ‘it lacks an explanatory mechanism’, ‘much of the research methodology is flawed’, or ‘some of the research has been on fraudsters’ - hardly disproof). Few skeptics have domain expertise, i.e. of having conducted or investigated research in the area.
Secondly, ESP covers quite a range of rather distinct phenomena. Only one has to be right for ESP to be true. And I’m not sure that all would require completely novel scientific principles (e.g. unknown physical forces); and the fact that our understanding of physics has gaps, and our understanding of consciousness certainly does, may well leave room for some form of ESP to be compatible with current science (not that that is essential).