Counterfactuals are hard. I wouldn’t be committing to donate it. (Also, if I were going to donate it, but it would have been donated anyway, then $4,000 no longer seems worth it if we ignore the other benefits.)
I expect at least one of us to update at least slightly.
I agree with “at least slightly”.
I’d be interested to know why you disagree
Idk, empirically when I discuss things with people whose beliefs are sufficiently different from mine, it doesn’t seem like their behavior changes much afterwards, even if they say they updated towards X. Similarly, when people talk to me, I often don’t see myself making any particular changes to how I think or behave. There’s definitely change over the course of a year, but it feels extremely difficult to ascribe that to particular things, and I think it more often comes from reading things that people wrote, rather than talking to them.
OK. Good to hear. I’m surprised to hear that you think my beliefs are sufficiently different from yours. I thought your timelines views are very similar to Ajeya’s; well, so are mine! (Also, I’ve formed my current views mostly in the last 6 months. Had you asked me a year or two ago, I probably would have said something like median 20-25 years from now, which is pretty close to your median I think. This is evidence, I think, that I could change my mind back.)
Anyhow, I won’t take up any more of your time… for now! Bwahaha! :)
Counterfactuals are hard. I wouldn’t be committing to donate it. (Also, if I were going to donate it, but it would have been donated anyway, then $4,000 no longer seems worth it if we ignore the other benefits.)
I agree with “at least slightly”.
Idk, empirically when I discuss things with people whose beliefs are sufficiently different from mine, it doesn’t seem like their behavior changes much afterwards, even if they say they updated towards X. Similarly, when people talk to me, I often don’t see myself making any particular changes to how I think or behave. There’s definitely change over the course of a year, but it feels extremely difficult to ascribe that to particular things, and I think it more often comes from reading things that people wrote, rather than talking to them.
OK. Good to hear. I’m surprised to hear that you think my beliefs are sufficiently different from yours. I thought your timelines views are very similar to Ajeya’s; well, so are mine! (Also, I’ve formed my current views mostly in the last 6 months. Had you asked me a year or two ago, I probably would have said something like median 20-25 years from now, which is pretty close to your median I think. This is evidence, I think, that I could change my mind back.)
Anyhow, I won’t take up any more of your time… for now! Bwahaha! :)