We have no idea if simulations are even possible! We can’t just casually assert “P(seems like HoH | simulation) > P(seems like HoH | not simulation)”! All that we can reasonably speculate is that, if simulations are made, they’re more likely to be of special times than of boring times.
Did you make a typo here? “if simulations are made, they’re more likely to be of special times than of boring times” is almost exactly what “P(seems like HoH | simulation) > P(seems like HoH | not simulation)” is saying. The only assumptions you need to go between them is that the world is more likely to seem like HoH for people living in special times than for people living in boring times, and that the statement “more likely to be of special times than of boring times” is meant relative to the rate at which special times and boring times appear outside of simulations.
We have no idea if simulations are even possible! We can’t just casually assert “P(seems like HoH | simulation) > P(seems like HoH | not simulation)”! All that we can reasonably speculate is that, if simulations are made, they’re more likely to be of special times than of boring times.
Did you make a typo here? “if simulations are made, they’re more likely to be of special times than of boring times” is almost exactly what “P(seems like HoH | simulation) > P(seems like HoH | not simulation)” is saying. The only assumptions you need to go between them is that the world is more likely to seem like HoH for people living in special times than for people living in boring times, and that the statement “more likely to be of special times than of boring times” is meant relative to the rate at which special times and boring times appear outside of simulations.
And that P(simulation) > 0.
Yep, see reply to Lukas.