Great post! It’s great to see more thought going into these issues. Personally, I’m quite sceptical about claims that our time is especially influential, and I don’t have a strong view on whether our time is more or less hingy than other times. Some additional thoughts:
I got the impression that you assume that some time (or times) are particularly hingy (and then go on to ask whether it’s our time). But it is also perfectly possible that no time is hingy, so I feel that this assumption needs to be justified. Of course, there is some variation and therefore there is inevitably a most influential time, but the crux of the matter is whether there are differences by a large factor (not just 1.5x). And that is not obvious; for instance, if we look at how people in the past could have shaped 21st century societies, it is not clear to me whether any time was especially important.
I think a key question for longtermism is whether the evolution of values and power will eventually settle in some steady state (i.e. the end of history). It is plausible that hinginess increases as one gets closer to this point. (But it’s not obvious, e.g. there could just be a slow convergence to a world government without any pivotal events.) By contrast, if values and influence drift indefinitely, as they did so far in human history, then I don’t see strong reasons to expect certain times to be particularly hingy. So it is crucial to ask whether a (non-extinction) steady state will happen, and how far away we are from it. (See also this related post of mine.)
”I suggest that in the past, we have seen hinginess increase. I think that most longtermists I know would prefer that someone living in 1600 passed resources onto us, today, rather than attempting direct longtermist influence.”
Does this take into account that there have been fewer people around in 1600, and many ways to have an influence were far less competitive? I feel that a person in 1600 could have had a significant impact, e.g. via advocacy for the “right” moral views (e.g. publishing good arguments for consequentialism, antispeciesism, etc.) or by pushing for general improvements like reducing violence and increasing cooperation. So I don’t quite agree with your take on this, though I wouldn’t claim the opposite either – it is not obvious to me whether hinginess increased or decreased. (By your inductive argument, that suggests that it’s not clear whether the future will be more or less hingy than the present.)
”A related, but more general, argument, is that the most pivotal point in time is when we develop techniques for engineering the motivations and values of the subsequent generation (such as through AI, but also perhaps through other technology, such as genetic engineering or advanced brainwashing technology), and that we’re close to that point.”
Similar to your recent point about how creating smarter-than human intelligence has long been feasible, I’d guess that, given strong enough motivation, a lock-in would already be feasible via brainwashing, propaganda, and sufficiently ruthless oppression of opposition. (We’ve had these “technologies” for a long time.) The reason why this doesn’t quite work in totalitarian states is that a) what you want to lock in is usually the power of an individual dictator or some group of humans, but there’s no way to prevent death, and b) people are not fully aligned with the dictator even at the beginning, which limits what you can do (principal-agent problems etc.). The reason we don’t it in liberal democracies is that a) we strongly disapprove of the necessary methods, b) we value free speech and personal autonomy, and c) most people don’t really mind moderate forms of value drift. So it’s to a large extent a question of motivation and taboos, and it is quite possible that people will reject the use of future lock-in technologies for similar reasons.
Great post! It’s great to see more thought going into these issues. Personally, I’m quite sceptical about claims that our time is especially influential, and I don’t have a strong view on whether our time is more or less hingy than other times. Some additional thoughts:
I got the impression that you assume that some time (or times) are particularly hingy (and then go on to ask whether it’s our time). But it is also perfectly possible that no time is hingy, so I feel that this assumption needs to be justified. Of course, there is some variation and therefore there is inevitably a most influential time, but the crux of the matter is whether there are differences by a large factor (not just 1.5x). And that is not obvious; for instance, if we look at how people in the past could have shaped 21st century societies, it is not clear to me whether any time was especially important.
I think a key question for longtermism is whether the evolution of values and power will eventually settle in some steady state (i.e. the end of history). It is plausible that hinginess increases as one gets closer to this point. (But it’s not obvious, e.g. there could just be a slow convergence to a world government without any pivotal events.) By contrast, if values and influence drift indefinitely, as they did so far in human history, then I don’t see strong reasons to expect certain times to be particularly hingy. So it is crucial to ask whether a (non-extinction) steady state will happen, and how far away we are from it. (See also this related post of mine.)
”I suggest that in the past, we have seen hinginess increase. I think that most longtermists I know would prefer that someone living in 1600 passed resources onto us, today, rather than attempting direct longtermist influence.”
Does this take into account that there have been fewer people around in 1600, and many ways to have an influence were far less competitive? I feel that a person in 1600 could have had a significant impact, e.g. via advocacy for the “right” moral views (e.g. publishing good arguments for consequentialism, antispeciesism, etc.) or by pushing for general improvements like reducing violence and increasing cooperation. So I don’t quite agree with your take on this, though I wouldn’t claim the opposite either – it is not obvious to me whether hinginess increased or decreased. (By your inductive argument, that suggests that it’s not clear whether the future will be more or less hingy than the present.)
”A related, but more general, argument, is that the most pivotal point in time is when we develop techniques for engineering the motivations and values of the subsequent generation (such as through AI, but also perhaps through other technology, such as genetic engineering or advanced brainwashing technology), and that we’re close to that point.”
Similar to your recent point about how creating smarter-than human intelligence has long been feasible, I’d guess that, given strong enough motivation, a lock-in would already be feasible via brainwashing, propaganda, and sufficiently ruthless oppression of opposition. (We’ve had these “technologies” for a long time.) The reason why this doesn’t quite work in totalitarian states is that a) what you want to lock in is usually the power of an individual dictator or some group of humans, but there’s no way to prevent death, and b) people are not fully aligned with the dictator even at the beginning, which limits what you can do (principal-agent problems etc.). The reason we don’t it in liberal democracies is that a) we strongly disapprove of the necessary methods, b) we value free speech and personal autonomy, and c) most people don’t really mind moderate forms of value drift. So it’s to a large extent a question of motivation and taboos, and it is quite possible that people will reject the use of future lock-in technologies for similar reasons.