my guess is: whether lotteries are great depends on the sample. if it´s tricky to make a good decision → lotteries may be great/ better (than a complex decision scheme). if it´s easy to make a good decision: lotteries sure are a bad thing.
example: as long as high skilled workers compete for a promotion: lotteries may be a good way to decide whom to promote. but after some years/ decades of lotteries workers may realize that there is no need to excel at ones job, because promotion does not depend on it. or even low-skilled workers may aplly for a promotion. same might be true for apllying for research grants, etc.
this page/link below is in german, but we know, there are some german-speaking ea´s. it´s an article in an economic newspaper and it´s about the benefit of using lotteries for choosing supervisors/superiors and there seem to be quiet some benefits in some cases. (google translate does a sufficient job here). https://www.wiwo.de/erfolg/management/aleatorische-verfahren-befoerderung-per-zufall-wir-wuerfeln-einen-chef/26621916.html
my guess is: whether lotteries are great depends on the sample. if it´s tricky to make a good decision → lotteries may be great/ better (than a complex decision scheme). if it´s easy to make a good decision: lotteries sure are a bad thing.
example: as long as high skilled workers compete for a promotion: lotteries may be a good way to decide whom to promote. but after some years/ decades of lotteries workers may realize that there is no need to excel at ones job, because promotion does not depend on it. or even low-skilled workers may aplly for a promotion. same might be true for apllying for research grants, etc.
Thanks for writing this!