The original EA Forum Prize does not seem to have had the distribution mismatch problem; the posts were presumably evaluated based on their ex-ante EV (or something like that?).
I don’t know if they were, so either way it was probably also not obvious to some post authors that they’d be judged by ex ante EV, and it’s enough for one of them to only think that they’ll be judged by ex post value to run into the distribution mismatch.
At least to the same extent – whatever it may be – as our contest. Expectational consequentialism seems to me like the norm, though that may be just my bubble, so I would judge both contests to be benign and net positive because I would expect most people to not want to gamble with everyone’s lives, to not think that a contest tries to encourage them to gamble with everyone’s lives, and to not want to just disguise their gamble from the prize committee.
In the original EA Forum Prize, the ex-post EV at the time of evaluation is usually similar to the ex-ante EV assuming that the evaluation happens closely after the post was written. (In a naive impact market, the price of a certificate can be high due to the chance that 3 years from now its ex-post EV will be extremely high.)
So you’re saying it’s fine for them not to make the distinction because they’re so quick that it hardly matters, but that it’s important for us? That makes sense. I suppose that circles back to my earlier comment that I think that our wording is pretty clear about the ex ante nature of the riskiness, but that we can make it even more clear by inserting a few more sentences into the post that make the ex ante part very explicit.
The original EA Forum Prize does not seem to have had the distribution mismatch problem; the posts were presumably evaluated based on their ex-ante EV (or something like that?).
I don’t know if they were, so either way it was probably also not obvious to some post authors that they’d be judged by ex ante EV, and it’s enough for one of them to only think that they’ll be judged by ex post value to run into the distribution mismatch.
At least to the same extent – whatever it may be – as our contest. Expectational consequentialism seems to me like the norm, though that may be just my bubble, so I would judge both contests to be benign and net positive because I would expect most people to not want to gamble with everyone’s lives, to not think that a contest tries to encourage them to gamble with everyone’s lives, and to not want to just disguise their gamble from the prize committee.
In the original EA Forum Prize, the ex-post EV at the time of evaluation is usually similar to the ex-ante EV assuming that the evaluation happens closely after the post was written. (In a naive impact market, the price of a certificate can be high due to the chance that 3 years from now its ex-post EV will be extremely high.)
So you’re saying it’s fine for them not to make the distinction because they’re so quick that it hardly matters, but that it’s important for us? That makes sense. I suppose that circles back to my earlier comment that I think that our wording is pretty clear about the ex ante nature of the riskiness, but that we can make it even more clear by inserting a few more sentences into the post that make the ex ante part very explicit.