On the other hand, the last sentence of your comment makes me feel that you’re equating my not agreeing with you with my not understanding probability. (I’m talking about my own feelings here, irrespective of what you intended to say.)
Well, OK. But in my last sentence, I wasn’t talking about the use of information terminology to refer to probabilities. I’m saying I don’t think you have an intuitive grasp of just how mind-bogglingly unlikely a probability like 2^(-30) is. There are other arguments to be made on the math here, but getting into anything else just seems fruitless when your initial priors are so far out there (and when you also tell people that you don’t expect to be persuaded anyway).
Well, OK. But in my last sentence, I wasn’t talking about the use of information terminology to refer to probabilities. I’m saying I don’t think you have an intuitive grasp of just how mind-bogglingly unlikely a probability like 2^(-30) is. There are other arguments to be made on the math here, but getting into anything else just seems fruitless when your initial priors are so far out there (and when you also tell people that you don’t expect to be persuaded anyway).