I used to think pretty much exactly the argument you’re describing, so I don’t think I will change my mind by discussing this with you in detail.
On the other hand, the last sentence of your comment makes me feel that you’re equating my not agreeing with you with my not understanding probability. (I’m talking about my own feelings here, irrespective of what you intended to say.) So, I don’t think I will change your mind by discussing this with you in detail.
I don’t feel motivated to go back and forth on this thread, because I think we will both end up feeling like it was a waste of time. I want to make it clear that I do not say this because I think badly of you.
I will try to clear up the bits you pointed out to be confusing. In the Language section, I am referring to MIRI’s writing, as well as Bostrom’s Superintelligence, as well as most IRL conversations and forum talk I’ve seen. “bits” are an abstraction akin to “log-odds”, I made them up because not every statement in that post is a probabilistic claim in a rigorous sense and the blog post was mostly written for myself. I really do estimate that there is less than 2−170 chance of AI being risky in a way that would lead to extinction, whose risk can be prevented, and moreover that it is possible to make meaningful progress on such prevention within the next 20 years, along with some more qualifiers that I believe to be necessary to support the cause right now.
On the other hand, the last sentence of your comment makes me feel that you’re equating my not agreeing with you with my not understanding probability. (I’m talking about my own feelings here, irrespective of what you intended to say.)
Well, OK. But in my last sentence, I wasn’t talking about the use of information terminology to refer to probabilities. I’m saying I don’t think you have an intuitive grasp of just how mind-bogglingly unlikely a probability like 2^(-30) is. There are other arguments to be made on the math here, but getting into anything else just seems fruitless when your initial priors are so far out there (and when you also tell people that you don’t expect to be persuaded anyway).
I used to think pretty much exactly the argument you’re describing, so I don’t think I will change my mind by discussing this with you in detail.
On the other hand, the last sentence of your comment makes me feel that you’re equating my not agreeing with you with my not understanding probability. (I’m talking about my own feelings here, irrespective of what you intended to say.) So, I don’t think I will change your mind by discussing this with you in detail.
I don’t feel motivated to go back and forth on this thread, because I think we will both end up feeling like it was a waste of time. I want to make it clear that I do not say this because I think badly of you.
I will try to clear up the bits you pointed out to be confusing. In the Language section, I am referring to MIRI’s writing, as well as Bostrom’s Superintelligence, as well as most IRL conversations and forum talk I’ve seen. “bits” are an abstraction akin to “log-odds”, I made them up because not every statement in that post is a probabilistic claim in a rigorous sense and the blog post was mostly written for myself. I really do estimate that there is less than 2−170 chance of AI being risky in a way that would lead to extinction, whose risk can be prevented, and moreover that it is possible to make meaningful progress on such prevention within the next 20 years, along with some more qualifiers that I believe to be necessary to support the cause right now.
Well, OK. But in my last sentence, I wasn’t talking about the use of information terminology to refer to probabilities. I’m saying I don’t think you have an intuitive grasp of just how mind-bogglingly unlikely a probability like 2^(-30) is. There are other arguments to be made on the math here, but getting into anything else just seems fruitless when your initial priors are so far out there (and when you also tell people that you don’t expect to be persuaded anyway).