Interesting idea about the “driver s license” for rationality.
You suggest that EA student groups should run tournaments . I would be interested in your reasoning. Why do you think this is better than encouraging people to join foretold.io as individuals? Do you think that we are lacking an institution or platform which helps individuals to get up to speed and interested in forecasting (so that they are good enough that foretold.io provides a positive experience)? Or do you think that these tournaments would be good signaling for students applying for future EA jobs?
Perhaps, national student forecasting tournaments were more feasible although I would intuitively say that the good forecasters might quickly leave.
Why do you think this is better than encouraging people to join foretold.io as individuals? Do you think that we are lacking an institution or platform which helps individuals to get up to speed and interested in forecasting (so that they are good enough that foretold.io provides a positive experience)?
I’m not sure if the group should fully run the tournaments, as opposed to just training a local team, or having the group leader stay in some contact with tournament organisers.
Though I have an intuition that some support from a local group might make things better. A similar case might be sports. Even though young children might start skiing with their parents, they often eventually join local clubs. There they practice with a trainer and older children, and occasionally travel together to tournaments. Eventually some of the best skiers move on to more intense clubs with more dedicated training regimes.
Trying to cache out the intuition more concretely, some of the things the local group might provide are:
Teammates. For motivation, accountability and learning.
A lower threshold for entering.
Team leaders. Someone to organise the effort and who can take lots of schleps out of the process (e.g. when I did math competitions in high school I met some kids from the more successful schools, and they would have teachers who were more clued in to when the competitions happened and who would pitch it to new students, book rooms for participants and provide them with writing utensils, point them to resources to learn more, etc)
I don’t think this list is exhaustive.
do you think that these tournaments would be good signaling for students applying for future EA jobs?
Interesting idea about the “driver s license” for rationality.
You suggest that EA student groups should run tournaments . I would be interested in your reasoning. Why do you think this is better than encouraging people to join foretold.io as individuals? Do you think that we are lacking an institution or platform which helps individuals to get up to speed and interested in forecasting (so that they are good enough that foretold.io provides a positive experience)? Or do you think that these tournaments would be good signaling for students applying for future EA jobs?
Perhaps, national student forecasting tournaments were more feasible although I would intuitively say that the good forecasters might quickly leave.
I’m not sure if the group should fully run the tournaments, as opposed to just training a local team, or having the group leader stay in some contact with tournament organisers.
Though I have an intuition that some support from a local group might make things better. A similar case might be sports. Even though young children might start skiing with their parents, they often eventually join local clubs. There they practice with a trainer and older children, and occasionally travel together to tournaments. Eventually some of the best skiers move on to more intense clubs with more dedicated training regimes.
Trying to cache out the intuition more concretely, some of the things the local group might provide are:
Teammates. For motivation, accountability and learning.
A lower threshold for entering.
Team leaders. Someone to organise the effort and who can take lots of schleps out of the process (e.g. when I did math competitions in high school I met some kids from the more successful schools, and they would have teachers who were more clued in to when the competitions happened and who would pitch it to new students, book rooms for participants and provide them with writing utensils, point them to resources to learn more, etc)
I don’t think this list is exhaustive.
Yes, I think they would be.