The post seems relatively optimistic. I’m worried that this may be motivated reasoning, and/or political reasoning (e.g., that people won’t listen to anyone who isn’t telling them that we can solve the crisis without doing anything too costly). Mind you, I’m not any kind of expert, I’m just suspicious-by-default given that most other analysis I’ve seen seems less optimistic (note that there are probably all kinds of horrible selection biases in what I’m reading and I have no idea what they are). Also, the author isn’t an expert; they seem to have consulted experts for the post, but this still reduces my confidence in its conclusions, because those experts could have been selected for agreeing with a conclusion that the author came up with for non-expert-informed reasons.
The post seems relatively optimistic. I’m worried that this may be motivated reasoning, and/or political reasoning (e.g., that people won’t listen to anyone who isn’t telling them that we can solve the crisis without doing anything too costly). Mind you, I’m not any kind of expert, I’m just suspicious-by-default given that most other analysis I’ve seen seems less optimistic (note that there are probably all kinds of horrible selection biases in what I’m reading and I have no idea what they are). Also, the author isn’t an expert; they seem to have consulted experts for the post, but this still reduces my confidence in its conclusions, because those experts could have been selected for agreeing with a conclusion that the author came up with for non-expert-informed reasons.