I want to give more context for the MacAskill quote.
The most obvious implication [of the Hinge of History hypothesis], however, is regarding what proportion of resources longtermist EAs should be spending on near-term existential risk mitigation versus what I call ‘buck-passing’ strategies like saving or movement-building. If you think that some future time will be much more influential than today, then a natural strategy is to ensure that future decision-makers, who you are happy to defer to, have as many resources as possible when some future, more influential, time comes.
Here, he is talking about strategies for solving specific problems, X-risks in this case. This is not relevant to the cluelessness argument advanced by Mogensen and that I am addressing. Later in his article, though, he does touch on the topic.
Perhaps we’re at a really transformative moment now, and we can, in principle, do something about it, but we’re so bad at predicting the consequences of our actions, or so clueless about what the right values are, that it would be better for us to save our resources and give them to future longtermists who have greater knowledge and are better able to use their resources, even at that less pivotal moment.
Buck-passing, or punting, is compatible with the “debugging” concept, but not with Mogensen’s “cluelessness.” With debugging, you deliberate as long as is possible or productive, and then act as wisely as possible. Once you’ve made a decision, you fix side effect problems as they arise, which might include finding ways to reverse the decision where possible. Although some decisions will result in genuine enormous moral disasters, such as slavery or Nazism, this approach appears to me to be both net good and our only choice.
With Mogensen’s cluelessness argument, it doesn’t matter how long you deliberate, because you have to be able to predict the ripple effects and their moral weights into the far future first. Since that’s impossible, you can never know the moral value of an action. We therefore can’t morally prefer one action over another. I’m not strawmanning this argument. It really is that extreme.
Buck-passing/punting also not identical to “debugging.” In buck-passing or punting, we’re deferring a decision on a specific issue to a wiser future. A current ban on genetically engineered human embryos is an example. In debugging, we’re making a decision, and trusting the future to resolve the unexpected difficulties. Climate change is an example: our ancestors created fossil fuel-based industry, and we are dealing with the unexpected consequences.
The reason I don’t feel the need to engage with the cluelessness literature is because, when sensible, it’s simply providing another approach to describing basic problems from economic theory and common sense, which I understand reasonably well and expect I can learn better from those sources. When done badly, it’s a salad of sophistry with a thick and unnecessary dressing of formal logic. I can’t read everything and I think I’ll learn a lot more of value from studying, oh, almost anything else. These writers need to convince me that they’ve produced insights of value if they want me to engage. I’m just describing why they haven’t succeeded in that project so far.
By the way, I appreciate you responding to my post. Although I’m sure you can see I’ve got little patience for Mogensen and the cluelessness literature I’ve seen more generally, I think it’s important to have conversations about it. And it’s always nice to have someone take an interest.
I want to give more context for the MacAskill quote.
Here, he is talking about strategies for solving specific problems, X-risks in this case. This is not relevant to the cluelessness argument advanced by Mogensen and that I am addressing. Later in his article, though, he does touch on the topic.
Buck-passing, or punting, is compatible with the “debugging” concept, but not with Mogensen’s “cluelessness.” With debugging, you deliberate as long as is possible or productive, and then act as wisely as possible. Once you’ve made a decision, you fix side effect problems as they arise, which might include finding ways to reverse the decision where possible. Although some decisions will result in genuine enormous moral disasters, such as slavery or Nazism, this approach appears to me to be both net good and our only choice.
With Mogensen’s cluelessness argument, it doesn’t matter how long you deliberate, because you have to be able to predict the ripple effects and their moral weights into the far future first. Since that’s impossible, you can never know the moral value of an action. We therefore can’t morally prefer one action over another. I’m not strawmanning this argument. It really is that extreme.
Buck-passing/punting also not identical to “debugging.” In buck-passing or punting, we’re deferring a decision on a specific issue to a wiser future. A current ban on genetically engineered human embryos is an example. In debugging, we’re making a decision, and trusting the future to resolve the unexpected difficulties. Climate change is an example: our ancestors created fossil fuel-based industry, and we are dealing with the unexpected consequences.
The reason I don’t feel the need to engage with the cluelessness literature is because, when sensible, it’s simply providing another approach to describing basic problems from economic theory and common sense, which I understand reasonably well and expect I can learn better from those sources. When done badly, it’s a salad of sophistry with a thick and unnecessary dressing of formal logic. I can’t read everything and I think I’ll learn a lot more of value from studying, oh, almost anything else. These writers need to convince me that they’ve produced insights of value if they want me to engage. I’m just describing why they haven’t succeeded in that project so far.
By the way, I appreciate you responding to my post. Although I’m sure you can see I’ve got little patience for Mogensen and the cluelessness literature I’ve seen more generally, I think it’s important to have conversations about it. And it’s always nice to have someone take an interest.