I have generally been quite skeptical about the view that we are on the cusp of a revolution that will lead us to artificial general intelligence in the next 50 years so.
Can you clarify what you mean by this? Does “quite skeptical” mean
I think there is <20% probability that we’ll have AGI in <50 years
or
I think there is <1% probability that we’ll have AGI in <50 years
or
I think there is <0.01% probability that we’ll have AGI in <50 years
or something else?
Language is quite imprecise, numbers can’t resolve uncertainty in the underlying phenomenon, but they help a lot in clarifying and making the strength of your uncertainty more precise.
Can you clarify what you mean by this? Does “quite skeptical” mean
or
or
or something else?
Language is quite imprecise, numbers can’t resolve uncertainty in the underlying phenomenon, but they help a lot in clarifying and making the strength of your uncertainty more precise.