Related: Suppose that, in 10 years, the RSP seems to have had no impact.* What signs would reveal this? And what seem the most likely explanations for the lack of impact?
*There already seem to be some indicators of impact, so feel free to interpret this as “seems to have had no impact after 2020”, or as “seems to have had no impact after 2020, plus the apparent impacts by 2020 all ended up washing out over time”.
Something like: it seems like the people we’re taking on the programme are doing kind of good things, but when we dig into counterfactual analysis it seems like they might on average have done more if they hadn’t joined the programme (perhaps because e.g. normal academic pressures are surprisingly helpful motivationally, or because we’re fostering a community which is too inward-looking).
Something like: it catalysed the creation of a whole stream of major new projects (led by scholars who used the space afforded by the programme to think seriously about possibilities, and who are well-networked with the broader x-risk ecosystem which makes coordination and recruitment easier).
Suppose, in 10 years, that the Research Scholar’s Programme has succeeded way beyond what you expected now. What happened?
Interesting question!
Related: Suppose that, in 10 years, the RSP seems to have had no impact.* What signs would reveal this? And what seem the most likely explanations for the lack of impact?
*There already seem to be some indicators of impact, so feel free to interpret this as “seems to have had no impact after 2020”, or as “seems to have had no impact after 2020, plus the apparent impacts by 2020 all ended up washing out over time”.
Something like: it seems like the people we’re taking on the programme are doing kind of good things, but when we dig into counterfactual analysis it seems like they might on average have done more if they hadn’t joined the programme (perhaps because e.g. normal academic pressures are surprisingly helpful motivationally, or because we’re fostering a community which is too inward-looking).
Something like: it catalysed the creation of a whole stream of major new projects (led by scholars who used the space afforded by the programme to think seriously about possibilities, and who are well-networked with the broader x-risk ecosystem which makes coordination and recruitment easier).