I think this topic is confusing because it mashes together four different difficult considerations: doing the most good with your available resources, the opportunity/obligation distinction, the effects of various schemes for spreading ea memes (and which ones get spread more), and the issues with precommitments in a world with a short prediction horizon.
Each of these issues has a range of reasonable positions, which means that the total space of positions on the gwwc pledge is large and difficult to enumerate cleanly.
I think this topic is confusing because it mashes together four different difficult considerations: doing the most good with your available resources, the opportunity/obligation distinction, the effects of various schemes for spreading ea memes (and which ones get spread more), and the issues with precommitments in a world with a short prediction horizon. Each of these issues has a range of reasonable positions, which means that the total space of positions on the gwwc pledge is large and difficult to enumerate cleanly.