I think the big ones were the cluelessness week and the small probabilities week.
Cluelessness week pointed out that we can’t really know the long-term effects of our actions. So people became suspicious that we can knowably affect the long-term future at all. This ended up being more of an empirical claim than a moral one.
The small probabilities week was challenging when put to the extreme (ie: God at your deathbed thought experiment). Additionally, some felt like the numbers of the expected future that people like Bostrom use were basically pulled out of thin air- along with the tiny probabilities of various actions affecting that future. So they were again pretty suspicious of the empirics here as well.
I would be happy to hear stories of people becoming significantly less longtermist. What changed their minds?
I think the big ones were the cluelessness week and the small probabilities week.
Cluelessness week pointed out that we can’t really know the long-term effects of our actions. So people became suspicious that we can knowably affect the long-term future at all. This ended up being more of an empirical claim than a moral one.
The small probabilities week was challenging when put to the extreme (ie: God at your deathbed thought experiment). Additionally, some felt like the numbers of the expected future that people like Bostrom use were basically pulled out of thin air- along with the tiny probabilities of various actions affecting that future. So they were again pretty suspicious of the empirics here as well.