I did include some example applications in the long introduction post (see my response to Khorton); I was worried that trying to include an example in this version might make it too long and thus lead to a high bounce rate… but perhaps I should have made it clear that I do have some applications in the old post.
Here is the first example (with updated terminology):
Consider lobbying for some policy change in a developing country—for example, on tobacco policy. Suppose that the proposal is to fund an advocacy campaign that would push for tighter controls on cigarettes, with the primary claimed advantage being “it will (increase the likelihood of passing legislation that will) reduce the mortality caused by smoking.” To evaluate this advantage, you would likely face questions such as:
Counterfactuality: What would happen without this intervention? (Imagine for example that someone claims the campaign is likely to work because there is a “growing wave of support” for the reform: this might mean that the reform—or a slightly less strong version of the reform—already has a decent chance of passing. As part of this, it may be the case that the advocacy campaign will already receive sufficient funding.)
Implementation: Do we actually have the necessary funding and can we actually meet the timeline outlined by the plan? (For example, are there any restrictions on foreign funding that have not been accounted for?)
Linkage: Supposing that the plan is implemented (or, for a given implementation of the plan), what is the resulting likelihood that the desired reform will be signed into law—and subsequently, how effective will the desired reform be in reducing mortality caused by smoking (which introduces a recursion of this framework).
Significance (assuming a utilitarian moral framework): How does “reducing mortality caused by smoking” translate to changes in wellbeing? If one considers the goal to simply be reducing mortality caused by smoking, that might be achieved, but it’s not guaranteed that achieving that goal will lead to an increase in wellbeing, such as is more-directly measured by a metric like QALYs. (For example, it’s possible that there are other widespread environmental problems that significantly reduce the effect of smoking mortality reduction on QALYs.)
I did include some example applications in the long introduction post (see my response to Khorton); I was worried that trying to include an example in this version might make it too long and thus lead to a high bounce rate… but perhaps I should have made it clear that I do have some applications in the old post.
Here is the first example (with updated terminology):