I find nothing objectionable in that characterization. And if we only had these three studies to guide us then I’d concede that a discount of some size seems warranted. But we also have A. our priors. And B. some new evidence from Barker et al. Both of point me away from very small spillovers, but again I’m still very unsure. I think I’ll have clearer views once I’m done analyzing the Barker et al. results and have had someone, ideally Nathanial Barker, check my work.
[Edit: Michael edited to add: “It’s not clear any specific number away from 0 could be justified.”] Well not-zero certainly seems more justifiable than zero. Zero spillovers implies that emotional empathy doesn’t exist, which is an odd claim.
To clarify what I edited in, I mean that, without better evidence/argument, the effect could be arbitrarily small but still nonzero. What reason do we have to believe it’s at least 1%, say, other than very subjective priors?
I agree that analysis of new evidence should help.
I’d point to the literature on time lagged correlations between household members emotional states that I quickly summarised in the last installment of the household spillover discussion. I think it implies a household spillover of 20%. But I don’t know if this type of data should over- or -underestimate the spillover ratio relative to what we’d find in RCTs. I know I’m being really slippery about this, but the Barker et al. analysis stuff so far makes me think it’s larger than that.
I find nothing objectionable in that characterization. And if we only had these three studies to guide us then I’d concede that a discount of some size seems warranted. But we also have A. our priors. And B. some new evidence from Barker et al. Both of point me away from very small spillovers, but again I’m still very unsure. I think I’ll have clearer views once I’m done analyzing the Barker et al. results and have had someone, ideally Nathanial Barker, check my work.
[Edit: Michael edited to add: “It’s not clear any specific number away from 0 could be justified.”] Well not-zero certainly seems more justifiable than zero. Zero spillovers implies that emotional empathy doesn’t exist, which is an odd claim.
To clarify what I edited in, I mean that, without better evidence/argument, the effect could be arbitrarily small but still nonzero. What reason do we have to believe it’s at least 1%, say, other than very subjective priors?
I agree that analysis of new evidence should help.
I’d point to the literature on time lagged correlations between household members emotional states that I quickly summarised in the last installment of the household spillover discussion. I think it implies a household spillover of 20%. But I don’t know if this type of data should over- or -underestimate the spillover ratio relative to what we’d find in RCTs. I know I’m being really slippery about this, but the Barker et al. analysis stuff so far makes me think it’s larger than that.