Here’s what you’re looking for.
Also citable from AII blog rather than EA Forum.
Note the post’s caveats. In particular, (1) the milestone-forecasts weren’t really forecasts since the questions were about what would be feasible rather than what would exist and (2) figuring out resolution is tricky.
Thank you very much!
Here’s what you’re looking for.
Also citable from AII blog rather than EA Forum.
Note the post’s caveats. In particular, (1) the milestone-forecasts weren’t really forecasts since the questions were about what would be feasible rather than what would exist and (2) figuring out resolution is tricky.
Thank you very much!