Not sure if this is what you have in mind, but Metaculus records the track record of its users’ predictive accuracy (see Brier score for the Community prediction).
A lot of their users are EAs I think, though it is probably not a representative sample.
Not sure if this is what you have in mind, but Metaculus records the track record of its users’ predictive accuracy (see Brier score for the Community prediction).
A lot of their users are EAs I think, though it is probably not a representative sample.