It definitely is possible. And perhaps more than 1 percent, but I don’t think I’d put a credence at more than 2-3 percent.
Also, I think, and I think this is a dangerous error, that a lot of people confuse the Chinese elites not supporting democracy with them not wanting to create good lives for the average person in their country.
In both the US and China the average member of the equivalent of congress has a soulless power seizing machine in their brain, but they also have normal human drives and hopes.
I suppose I just don’t think that with infinite power that Xi would create a world that is less pleasant to live in than Nancy Pelosi, and he’d probably make a much pleasanter one than Paul Ryan.
My real point in saying this is that while I’d modestly prefer a well aligned American democratic ai singleton to a well aligned communist Chinese one, both are pretty good outcomes in my view relative to an unaligned singleton, and we basically should do nothing that increases the odds of an aligned American singleton relative to a Chinese one at the cost of increasing the odds of an unaligned singleton relative to an aligned one.
It definitely is possible. And perhaps more than 1 percent, but I don’t think I’d put a credence at more than 2-3 percent.
Also, I think, and I think this is a dangerous error, that a lot of people confuse the Chinese elites not supporting democracy with them not wanting to create good lives for the average person in their country.
In both the US and China the average member of the equivalent of congress has a soulless power seizing machine in their brain, but they also have normal human drives and hopes.
I suppose I just don’t think that with infinite power that Xi would create a world that is less pleasant to live in than Nancy Pelosi, and he’d probably make a much pleasanter one than Paul Ryan.
My real point in saying this is that while I’d modestly prefer a well aligned American democratic ai singleton to a well aligned communist Chinese one, both are pretty good outcomes in my view relative to an unaligned singleton, and we basically should do nothing that increases the odds of an aligned American singleton relative to a Chinese one at the cost of increasing the odds of an unaligned singleton relative to an aligned one.