Random idea: I wonder if it would be useful to let people make forecasts about key results before conducting studies like this (e.g. by asking a few people directly or putting the question on Metaculus or Manifold Markets), so that we better understand how informative the study was without succumbing to hindsight bias.
Random idea: I wonder if it would be useful to let people make forecasts about key results before conducting studies like this (e.g. by asking a few people directly or putting the question on Metaculus or Manifold Markets), so that we better understand how informative the study was without succumbing to hindsight bias.