Thanks—I think there are scenarios where AWSs could pose a GCR.
A large-scale nuclear war is unbelievably costly: it would most likely kill 1-7Bn in the first year and wipe out a large fraction of Earth’s economic activity (i.e. of order one quadrillion USD or more, a decade worth of world GDP.)
I’ve seen mortality estimates and produced one of my own, but I haven’t seen economic damage estimates. Do you have a reference for this?
No that was just a super rough estimate: world GPD of ~100 Tn, so 1 decade’s worth is ~1 Qd, and I’m guessing a global nuclear war would wipe out a significant fraction of that.
My intuition has been that at least in the medium term unless AWs are self-replicating they’d cause GCR risk primarily through escalation to nuclear war; but if there are other scenarios, that would be interesting to know (by PM if you’re worried about info. hazards.)
Thanks—I think there are scenarios where AWSs could pose a GCR.
I’ve seen mortality estimates and produced one of my own, but I haven’t seen economic damage estimates. Do you have a reference for this?
No that was just a super rough estimate: world GPD of ~100 Tn, so 1 decade’s worth is ~1 Qd, and I’m guessing a global nuclear war would wipe out a significant fraction of that.
My intuition has been that at least in the medium term unless AWs are self-replicating they’d cause GCR risk primarily through escalation to nuclear war; but if there are other scenarios, that would be interesting to know (by PM if you’re worried about info. hazards.)