The post you linked is interesting but omits one crucial consideration—most of Russian soldiers probably have their families back in Russia, and it’s very likely that deserters’ families would be harassed, given that there are already many human rights’ violations going on there.
Case in point—https://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/13/world/europe/13hazing.html—one of the Russian soldiers lost his legs in (peacetime) brutal hazing. His family was pressured with bribery to drop the charges against the army (they didn’t). It’s not hard to imagine similar, albeit brutal pressure put on families of deserters.
Interestingly, a quick calculation suggests that World War 2 had an economic cost per combatant approximately equal to what the Ukrainian government is offering to each Russian deserter ($50k).
My sense is that this approach hasn’t been used much in the past, but I’m not sure why.
Bryan Caplan had some interesting ideas about this. It seems right that safe passage to the EU would be essential. https://betonit.blog/2022/03/02/make-desertion-fast/
The post you linked is interesting but omits one crucial consideration—most of Russian soldiers probably have their families back in Russia, and it’s very likely that deserters’ families would be harassed, given that there are already many human rights’ violations going on there.
Case in point—https://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/13/world/europe/13hazing.html—one of the Russian soldiers lost his legs in (peacetime) brutal hazing. His family was pressured with bribery to drop the charges against the army (they didn’t). It’s not hard to imagine similar, albeit brutal pressure put on families of deserters.
Interestingly, a quick calculation suggests that World War 2 had an economic cost per combatant approximately equal to what the Ukrainian government is offering to each Russian deserter ($50k).
My sense is that this approach hasn’t been used much in the past, but I’m not sure why.