That’s a good point. I seem to recall that the efficacy of (most) antivirals as prophylaxis against most diseases is approximately nil, and we can’t easily do COMPARE-style studies for prophylaxis, so I’m unsure if, in general, this is a good strategy. (And I don’t think HCTs for trying this out early on using a battery of drugs would be ethical, even ignoring sample size requirements, though perhaps animal studies could be done quickly.)
But I definitely think post-exposure prophylaxis is potentially promising, if it’s likely to work. The two challenges are that 1) it requires contact tracing far better than what we saw during COVID—though we often manage such contact tracing for HIV, so it’s not at all impossible, and 2) in most countries, I can’t imagine that the prescription / medical system would adapt fast enough to allow such prescriptions, short of them actually becoming super-competent at response. So if this is a good idea, we need lots of preparation to actually make sure it can be used.
Alternatively, I guess it could be used very early on to slow / stop initial spread, but for the cases I’m most concerned about, I don’t know how we’d know enough to try the strategy then.
That’s a good point. I seem to recall that the efficacy of (most) antivirals as prophylaxis against most diseases is approximately nil, and we can’t easily do COMPARE-style studies for prophylaxis, so I’m unsure if, in general, this is a good strategy. (And I don’t think HCTs for trying this out early on using a battery of drugs would be ethical, even ignoring sample size requirements, though perhaps animal studies could be done quickly.)
But I definitely think post-exposure prophylaxis is potentially promising, if it’s likely to work. The two challenges are that 1) it requires contact tracing far better than what we saw during COVID—though we often manage such contact tracing for HIV, so it’s not at all impossible, and 2) in most countries, I can’t imagine that the prescription / medical system would adapt fast enough to allow such prescriptions, short of them actually becoming super-competent at response. So if this is a good idea, we need lots of preparation to actually make sure it can be used.
Alternatively, I guess it could be used very early on to slow / stop initial spread, but for the cases I’m most concerned about, I don’t know how we’d know enough to try the strategy then.