I think something like 0.1% of the population is a more accurate figure for how you coded the most strict category. 0.3% for the amount I would consider to have actually heard of the movement. These are the figures I would have given before seeing the study, anyway.
It’s hard for me to point to specific numbers that have shaped my thinking, but I’ll lay out a bit of my thought process. Of the people I know in person through non-EA means, I’m pretty sure not more than a low-single-digit percent know about EA, and this is a demographic that is way more likely to have heard of EA than the general public. Additionally, as someone who looks at a lot at political polls, I am constantly shocked at how little the public knows about pretty much everything. Given that e.g. EA forum participation numbers are measured in the thousands, I highly doubt 6 million Americans have heard of EA.
We didn’t dwell on the minimum plausible number (as noted above, the main thrust of the post is that estimates should be lower than previous estimates, and I think a variety of values below around 2% are plausible).
That said, 0.1% strikes me as too low, since it implies a very low ratio between the number of people who’ve heard of EA and the number of moderately engaged EAs. i.e. this seems to suggest that for every ~50 people who’ve heard of EA (and basically understand the definition) there’s 1 person who’s moderately engaged with EA (in the US). That would be slightly higher with your estimate of 0.3% who’ve heard of the movement at all. My guess would be that the ratio is much higher, i.e. many more people who hear of EA (even among those who could give a basic definition) don’t engage with EA at all, and even fewer of those really engage with EA.
We’ll probably be going into more detail about this in a followup post.
I think something like 0.1% of the population is a more accurate figure for how you coded the most strict category. 0.3% for the amount I would consider to have actually heard of the movement. These are the figures I would have given before seeing the study, anyway.
It’s hard for me to point to specific numbers that have shaped my thinking, but I’ll lay out a bit of my thought process. Of the people I know in person through non-EA means, I’m pretty sure not more than a low-single-digit percent know about EA, and this is a demographic that is way more likely to have heard of EA than the general public. Additionally, as someone who looks at a lot at political polls, I am constantly shocked at how little the public knows about pretty much everything. Given that e.g. EA forum participation numbers are measured in the thousands, I highly doubt 6 million Americans have heard of EA.
Thanks for the reply!
We didn’t dwell on the minimum plausible number (as noted above, the main thrust of the post is that estimates should be lower than previous estimates, and I think a variety of values below around 2% are plausible).
That said, 0.1% strikes me as too low, since it implies a very low ratio between the number of people who’ve heard of EA and the number of moderately engaged EAs. i.e. this seems to suggest that for every ~50 people who’ve heard of EA (and basically understand the definition) there’s 1 person who’s moderately engaged with EA (in the US). That would be slightly higher with your estimate of 0.3% who’ve heard of the movement at all. My guess would be that the ratio is much higher, i.e. many more people who hear of EA (even among those who could give a basic definition) don’t engage with EA at all, and even fewer of those really engage with EA.
We’ll probably be going into more detail about this in a followup post.