Indeed, but the misconception/lack of nuance is specifically about 30% here is Wikipedia on Good Judgement Project. I guess it’s either about looking at preliminary data or rounding.
The top forecasters in GJP are “reportedly 30% better than intelligence officers with access to actual classified information.”
Indeed, but the misconception/lack of nuance is specifically about 30% here is Wikipedia on Good Judgement Project. I guess it’s either about looking at preliminary data or rounding.