Interesting side-finding: prediction markets seem notably worse than cleverly aggregated prediction pools (at least when liquidity is as low as in the play markets). Not many studies, but see Appendix A for what we’ve found.
Interesting side-finding: prediction markets seem notably worse than cleverly aggregated prediction pools (at least when liquidity is as low as in the play markets). Not many studies, but see Appendix A for what we’ve found.