“My view makes perfect sense, contemporary culture is crazy, and history will bear me out when my perspective becomes a durable new form of common sense” is a statement that, while it scans as arrogant, could easily be true—and has been many times in the past. It at least explains why a person who ascribes to “social intelligence” as a guide might still hold many counterintuitive opinions. I agree with you though that it’s not useful for settling disputes when people disagree in their predictions about “universal common sense.”
If you believe that current and past common sense is a better guide, then doesn’t that work against Pascal’s Wager? I mean, how many people now, or in the past, would agree with you that Pascal’s Wager is a good idea? I think it has stuck around in part because it’s so counterintuitive. We don’t exactly see a ton of deathbed conversions, much less for game-theoretic reasons.
I would say if we use other people’s judgment as a guide for our own, it’s an argument for the belief in the divine/God/the supernatural and it becomes hard to say Christianity and Islam have negligible probability. So rules that are like “ignore tiny probability” don’t work. Your idea of discounting probability as utility rises still works but we’ve talked about why I don’t think that’s compelling enough.
I don’t have good survey evidence on Pascal’s Wager, but I think a lot of religious believers would agree with the general concept- don’t risk your soul, life is short and eternity is long, and other phrases like that seem to reference the basic idea.
This guy converted on his deathbed because of the wager (John von Neumann).
“My view makes perfect sense, contemporary culture is crazy, and history will bear me out when my perspective becomes a durable new form of common sense” is a statement that, while it scans as arrogant, could easily be true—and has been many times in the past. It at least explains why a person who ascribes to “social intelligence” as a guide might still hold many counterintuitive opinions. I agree with you though that it’s not useful for settling disputes when people disagree in their predictions about “universal common sense.”
If you believe that current and past common sense is a better guide, then doesn’t that work against Pascal’s Wager? I mean, how many people now, or in the past, would agree with you that Pascal’s Wager is a good idea? I think it has stuck around in part because it’s so counterintuitive. We don’t exactly see a ton of deathbed conversions, much less for game-theoretic reasons.
I would say if we use other people’s judgment as a guide for our own, it’s an argument for the belief in the divine/God/the supernatural and it becomes hard to say Christianity and Islam have negligible probability. So rules that are like “ignore tiny probability” don’t work. Your idea of discounting probability as utility rises still works but we’ve talked about why I don’t think that’s compelling enough.
I don’t have good survey evidence on Pascal’s Wager, but I think a lot of religious believers would agree with the general concept- don’t risk your soul, life is short and eternity is long, and other phrases like that seem to reference the basic idea.
This guy converted on his deathbed because of the wager (John von Neumann).