Ah gotcha. So you’re specifically objecting to people who say ‘even if there’s a 1% chance’ based on vague intuition, and not to people who think carefully about AI risk, conclude that there’s a 1% chance, and then act upon it?
Exactly! “Even if there’s a 1% chance” on its own is a poor argument, “I am pretty confident there’s at least a 1% chance and therefore I’m taking action” is totally reasonable
Ah gotcha. So you’re specifically objecting to people who say ‘even if there’s a 1% chance’ based on vague intuition, and not to people who think carefully about AI risk, conclude that there’s a 1% chance, and then act upon it?
Exactly! “Even if there’s a 1% chance” on its own is a poor argument, “I am pretty confident there’s at least a 1% chance and therefore I’m taking action” is totally reasonable