Update: I spent some more time digging into this. The claim from the report that I care most about is the claim of a 1 in 100,000 existential risk due to climate change. This figure comes from a cost-effectiveness model that has since been deleted.
(I asked Forethought Institute if they have a backup and apparently they don’t.)
I suspect that I would’ve had issues with the model if I’d read it (specifically I would’ve thought the credence intervals were too narrow). From skimming the report, 1 in 100,000 seems overconfident based on the presented evidence, but I don’t actually know what went into the model.
Update: I spent some more time digging into this. The claim from the report that I care most about is the claim of a 1 in 100,000 existential risk due to climate change. This figure comes from a cost-effectiveness model that has since been deleted.
(I asked Forethought Institute if they have a backup and apparently they don’t.)
I suspect that I would’ve had issues with the model if I’d read it (specifically I would’ve thought the credence intervals were too narrow). From skimming the report, 1 in 100,000 seems overconfident based on the presented evidence, but I don’t actually know what went into the model.