This is great, thanks for writing it! I’m curating it. I really appreciate the table, the fact that you went back and analyzed the results, the very clear flags about reasons to be skeptical of these conclusions or this methodology, etc.
This is commonly true of the ‘Narrow tasks’ forecasts (although I disagree with the authors that it is consistently so).[9] For example, when asked when there is a 50% chance AI can write a top forty hit, respondents gave a median of 10 years. Yet when asked about the probability of this milestone being reached in 10 years, respondents gave a median of 27.5%.
This is great, thanks for writing it! I’m curating it. I really appreciate the table, the fact that you went back and analyzed the results, the very clear flags about reasons to be skeptical of these conclusions or this methodology, etc.
I’d also highlight this recent post: Why I think it’s important to work on AI forecasting
Also, this is somewhat wild: