Quick reply from me too—You’re right, doubling isn’t so dramatic so I’ll amend that sentence. What I really meant to say was that we have to scale up our low-carbon energy production from roughly 17,500 TWh in 2020 to 308,000TWh in 2100, an increase of almost 17x, which seems more dramatic to me! Will reply to the following later.
This also strikes me as pretty relevant in this context, essentially the IPCC’s scenarios do not include futures where energy demand does not increase and a doubling (compared to 2010) is roughly in the middle of considered scenarios (of course, this is very simplistic, not all of those scenarios are equally plausible, nor does the IPCC necessarily capture the entire range of possilble futures, but it gives a good sense of how unlikely a scenario such as the one the paper you cite uses is in the overall range of views).
Quick reply from me too—You’re right, doubling isn’t so dramatic so I’ll amend that sentence. What I really meant to say was that we have to scale up our low-carbon energy production from roughly 17,500 TWh in 2020 to 308,000TWh in 2100, an increase of almost 17x, which seems more dramatic to me! Will reply to the following later.
This also strikes me as pretty relevant in this context, essentially the IPCC’s scenarios do not include futures where energy demand does not increase and a doubling (compared to 2010) is roughly in the middle of considered scenarios (of course, this is very simplistic, not all of those scenarios are equally plausible, nor does the IPCC necessarily capture the entire range of possilble futures, but it gives a good sense of how unlikely a scenario such as the one the paper you cite uses is in the overall range of views).
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016300681