I. Doubling is not dramatic:
Doubling of energy supply is not a dramatic increase in at least two ways:
It looks quite conservative when considering the demographic and economic dynamics you mention (60% population increase, hopefully at least a tripling in GDP per capita, i.e. something like a 5x larger economy). Saying one expects energy demand to only double by end of century assumes a lot of reductions in energy intensity, i.e. increased efficiency, structural change, and, possibly, demand reductions.
Relatedly, it is by far not the at the upper end of plausible futures the IPCC and many other bodies consider. Indeed, it would not be terribly surprising if energy demand by end of century increased by much more than just a doubling and this is something our responses should be robust to.
II. Carbon intensity of energy to ~0 is the sine qua non of climate success.
Per the Kaya Identity, the only way to get to zero emissions is when the carbon intensity of all economic activity is zero, it’s the only necessary condition and it’s also sufficient. Because there is also carbon removal and the goal is net-zero not zero it’s not quite as logically necessary (though it’s still sufficient).
Quick reply from me too—You’re right, doubling isn’t so dramatic so I’ll amend that sentence. What I really meant to say was that we have to scale up our low-carbon energy production from roughly 17,500 TWh in 2020 to 308,000TWh in 2100, an increase of almost 17x, which seems more dramatic to me! Will reply to the following later.
This also strikes me as pretty relevant in this context, essentially the IPCC’s scenarios do not include futures where energy demand does not increase and a doubling (compared to 2010) is roughly in the middle of considered scenarios (of course, this is very simplistic, not all of those scenarios are equally plausible, nor does the IPCC necessarily capture the entire range of possilble futures, but it gives a good sense of how unlikely a scenario such as the one the paper you cite uses is in the overall range of views).
Thanks, James!
More on this later, but for now just two points:
I. Doubling is not dramatic: Doubling of energy supply is not a dramatic increase in at least two ways:
It looks quite conservative when considering the demographic and economic dynamics you mention (60% population increase, hopefully at least a tripling in GDP per capita, i.e. something like a 5x larger economy). Saying one expects energy demand to only double by end of century assumes a lot of reductions in energy intensity, i.e. increased efficiency, structural change, and, possibly, demand reductions.
Relatedly, it is by far not the at the upper end of plausible futures the IPCC and many other bodies consider. Indeed, it would not be terribly surprising if energy demand by end of century increased by much more than just a doubling and this is something our responses should be robust to.
II. Carbon intensity of energy to ~0 is the sine qua non of climate success.
Per the Kaya Identity, the only way to get to zero emissions is when the carbon intensity of all economic activity is zero, it’s the only necessary condition and it’s also sufficient. Because there is also carbon removal and the goal is net-zero not zero it’s not quite as logically necessary (though it’s still sufficient).
Quick reply from me too—You’re right, doubling isn’t so dramatic so I’ll amend that sentence. What I really meant to say was that we have to scale up our low-carbon energy production from roughly 17,500 TWh in 2020 to 308,000TWh in 2100, an increase of almost 17x, which seems more dramatic to me! Will reply to the following later.
This also strikes me as pretty relevant in this context, essentially the IPCC’s scenarios do not include futures where energy demand does not increase and a doubling (compared to 2010) is roughly in the middle of considered scenarios (of course, this is very simplistic, not all of those scenarios are equally plausible, nor does the IPCC necessarily capture the entire range of possilble futures, but it gives a good sense of how unlikely a scenario such as the one the paper you cite uses is in the overall range of views).
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016300681