Most EAs I know are not planning to have children as far as I know (which I admit is not very far—to most I haven’t explicitly spoken about the topic). Even if they did, it seems like a really slow and expensive way to build a movement. It may be one factor among others for EAs considering to build a family, but I doubt it is decisive for a considerable number of individuals.
If we simplify the possible outcome to two scenarios, a) children raised by EAs will overwhelmingly become EAs themselves, or b) this effect is much weaker and very few children will share the same values, I’d argue the value of information appears to be low.
Firstly, it seems highly unlikely to me that having children is anywhere near the most effective thing an EA can do. It is of course fine to make that plan for other, personal reasons, but I doubt many EAs get to the conclusion “the best use of my time on this planet in my pursuit to make this world a better place is to raise my own altruistic children”. Growing the movement can certainly be done quicker without first growing your own little humans.
So given that assumption, the a) scenario, i.e. the “positive” outcome, could actually turn out harmful in a sense as it might convince a few additional EAs to have children that otherwise wouldn’t. Scenario b) on the other hand would be the opposite and possibly keep a few EAs from having children that without that evidence would have done so. In both cases it seems we’re better off simply assuming the children we have will not turn into EAs, as opposed to spending decades and hundreds of thousands of dollars on an experiment conducted in order to gain some value of information.
This line of argumentation of course only works if you agree with my assumption that having children is a very ineffective way to grow a movement though.
Most EAs I know are not planning to have children as far as I know (which I admit is not very far—to most I haven’t explicitly spoken about the topic). Even if they did, it seems like a really slow and expensive way to build a movement. It may be one factor among others for EAs considering to build a family, but I doubt it is decisive for a considerable number of individuals.
If we simplify the possible outcome to two scenarios, a) children raised by EAs will overwhelmingly become EAs themselves, or b) this effect is much weaker and very few children will share the same values, I’d argue the value of information appears to be low.
Firstly, it seems highly unlikely to me that having children is anywhere near the most effective thing an EA can do. It is of course fine to make that plan for other, personal reasons, but I doubt many EAs get to the conclusion “the best use of my time on this planet in my pursuit to make this world a better place is to raise my own altruistic children”. Growing the movement can certainly be done quicker without first growing your own little humans.
So given that assumption, the a) scenario, i.e. the “positive” outcome, could actually turn out harmful in a sense as it might convince a few additional EAs to have children that otherwise wouldn’t. Scenario b) on the other hand would be the opposite and possibly keep a few EAs from having children that without that evidence would have done so. In both cases it seems we’re better off simply assuming the children we have will not turn into EAs, as opposed to spending decades and hundreds of thousands of dollars on an experiment conducted in order to gain some value of information.
This line of argumentation of course only works if you agree with my assumption that having children is a very ineffective way to grow a movement though.