Really, thanks for the post. I think it’s quite important to have such a list.
If we take anthropic reasoning and our observations about space seriously, we appear very likely to be in a ‘Great Filter’, which appears likely to kill us (and unlikely to be AI).
I’m not sure if we could say “very likely,” though the odds are surely relevant. I’m no expert, but I guess the case about the solution to the Fermi Paradox is still open, ranging from what prob distribution one uses to model the problem, to our location in the Milky Way. For instance, being “close” to its boarder might make it easier for us to survive extreme events happening in more central (and crowded) regions, but also harder to spot activity in the other side of the galaxy.
And, if there’s a Great Filter ahead, I think one can say “it’s unlikely to be AI” only in the same sense we can say “Team A is the favorite, but it’s unlikely to be the winner – too many other competitors.” I don’t see, right now, better candidates for a Great Filter than some surprising technological innovation.
Really, thanks for the post. I think it’s quite important to have such a list.
If we take anthropic reasoning and our observations about space seriously, we appear very likely to be in a ‘Great Filter’, which appears likely to kill us (and unlikely to be AI).
I’m not sure if we could say “very likely,” though the odds are surely relevant. I’m no expert, but I guess the case about the solution to the Fermi Paradox is still open, ranging from what prob distribution one uses to model the problem, to our location in the Milky Way. For instance, being “close” to its boarder might make it easier for us to survive extreme events happening in more central (and crowded) regions, but also harder to spot activity in the other side of the galaxy.
And, if there’s a Great Filter ahead, I think one can say “it’s unlikely to be AI” only in the same sense we can say “Team A is the favorite, but it’s unlikely to be the winner – too many other competitors.” I don’t see, right now, better candidates for a Great Filter than some surprising technological innovation.