This conference center can drive donations in multiple ways: by improving the quality of projects and ideas, by increasing the points of contact with EA, by becoming an object of media attention, and by provoking reactions within EA to the conference center’s existence and symbolism.
To argue that negative press makes this conference center extremely net negative, it’s not enough to say it’s going to generate bad press. That bad press needs to cause people who were previously going to become substantial donors to EA to reconsider their decision. And that effect needs to have no substantial counterbalance from the other ways the conference center can drive donations.
Beyond this, the conference center can also be net positive EV even if it has a net negative effect on donations. If it cuts out donations in half, but triples the effectiveness of the money we do spend, then it’s paying for itself in utilons.
Beyond this, the conference center can also be net positive EV even if it has a net negative effect on donations. If it cuts out donations in half, but triples the effectiveness of the money we do spend, then it’s paying for itself in utilons.
I think this overstates the case significantly. Beyond specific disagreements with the numbers, Wytham’s influence on the movement is likely more local, while harm to donations is likely more global, meaning that I expect the net effects are unlikely to balance in Wytham’s favour.
I chose my words carefully here, and phrased my comment as a hypothetical pathway by which the conference center could be net positive EV with a negative effect on donations. The likelihood that it is in fact positive EV is an entirely separate question. We don’t have data on that—not even the bad tweets and press we’re getting right now is evidence of the effect on donations. Obviously, we’re never going to have great data and we’ll have to do reasoning under uncertainty. But I don’t think we should update much on twitter. Until someone really digs in and writes the analysis, I’m withholding judgment.
I understand that, but this kind of thing fuels the fire of snark against the EA movement. Tweets like these are a great example of taking this out of context and using it to undermine the entire point of EA. I don’t think it makes sense to spend all our time optimising away opportunities for snark, but in this case it would have been so easily avoided: don’t buy a mansion, or if you do, get the granter buy it and lease it to you for 100 years or something.
I think the optics are particularly bad because english old stone mansions code as particularly luxurious in an american context — the price tag becomes much less important than the pictures of what looks like old school opulence.
Of course this can have a net positive EV, but if you’re holding me to the standard of finding specific future donors we have lost because of this, then I would like to hold you to the standard of pointing out specific future ideas and projects that this enables that will generate positive EV.
As I said in my reply to Neel, I am outlining a hypothetical, not making a claim about what the consequences on donations or ideas will be. I just don’t see very much value coming out of casual comments, although I think it’s natural that people are reacting to all the twitter vitriol (but I encourage everyone to delete twitter). I am keeping an open mind about the abbey, and my comment attempts to explain why.
This conference center can drive donations in multiple ways: by improving the quality of projects and ideas, by increasing the points of contact with EA, by becoming an object of media attention, and by provoking reactions within EA to the conference center’s existence and symbolism.
To argue that negative press makes this conference center extremely net negative, it’s not enough to say it’s going to generate bad press. That bad press needs to cause people who were previously going to become substantial donors to EA to reconsider their decision. And that effect needs to have no substantial counterbalance from the other ways the conference center can drive donations.
Beyond this, the conference center can also be net positive EV even if it has a net negative effect on donations. If it cuts out donations in half, but triples the effectiveness of the money we do spend, then it’s paying for itself in utilons.
I think this overstates the case significantly. Beyond specific disagreements with the numbers, Wytham’s influence on the movement is likely more local, while harm to donations is likely more global, meaning that I expect the net effects are unlikely to balance in Wytham’s favour.
I chose my words carefully here, and phrased my comment as a hypothetical pathway by which the conference center could be net positive EV with a negative effect on donations. The likelihood that it is in fact positive EV is an entirely separate question. We don’t have data on that—not even the bad tweets and press we’re getting right now is evidence of the effect on donations. Obviously, we’re never going to have great data and we’ll have to do reasoning under uncertainty. But I don’t think we should update much on twitter. Until someone really digs in and writes the analysis, I’m withholding judgment.
I understand that, but this kind of thing fuels the fire of snark against the EA movement. Tweets like these are a great example of taking this out of context and using it to undermine the entire point of EA. I don’t think it makes sense to spend all our time optimising away opportunities for snark, but in this case it would have been so easily avoided: don’t buy a mansion, or if you do, get the granter buy it and lease it to you for 100 years or something.
I think the optics are particularly bad because english old stone mansions code as particularly luxurious in an american context — the price tag becomes much less important than the pictures of what looks like old school opulence.
Of course this can have a net positive EV, but if you’re holding me to the standard of finding specific future donors we have lost because of this, then I would like to hold you to the standard of pointing out specific future ideas and projects that this enables that will generate positive EV.
As I said in my reply to Neel, I am outlining a hypothetical, not making a claim about what the consequences on donations or ideas will be. I just don’t see very much value coming out of casual comments, although I think it’s natural that people are reacting to all the twitter vitriol (but I encourage everyone to delete twitter). I am keeping an open mind about the abbey, and my comment attempts to explain why.