1. How much progress has been made relative to expectations and how does this affect which timelines are most likely?
Since the launch of GPT-4, the next relevant data point will be GPT-5. All the rest is ~noise.
From yesterday’s announcement, the most interesting thing is that they are making their newest model free (many people will cancel their paid subscriptions). This seems to indicate that they will launch GPT-5 soon, which will be available only for the paid tier.
Since the launch of GPT-4, the next relevant data point will be GPT-5. All the rest is ~noise.
From yesterday’s announcement, the most interesting thing is that they are making their newest model free (many people will cancel their paid subscriptions). This seems to indicate that they will launch GPT-5 soon, which will be available only for the paid tier.
Yes, and the longer until this release the more we should update towards longer timelines
The prediction on Metaculus has barely moved for a year.