While in reality the long-term catastrophe rate will fluctuate, I think it fair to assume it is constant (an average of unknowable fluctuations)
I don’t think this is an innocuous assumption! Long term anthropogenic risk is surely a function of technological progress, population, social values, etc—all of which are trending, not just fluctuating. So it feels like catastrophe rate should also be trending long term.
I don’t think this is an innocuous assumption! Long term anthropogenic risk is surely a function of technological progress, population, social values, etc—all of which are trending, not just fluctuating. So it feels like catastrophe rate should also be trending long term.