My thoughts are that this problem is, well, not exactly solved, but perhaps solved in practice if you have competent and aligned forecasters, because then you can ask conditional questions which don’t resolve.
Given such and such measures, what will the spread of covid be.
Given the lack of such and such measures, what will the spread of covid be
Then you can still get forecasts for both, even if you only expect the first to go through.
This does require forecasters to give probabilities even when the question they are going to forecast on doesn’t resolve.
This is easier to do with EAs, because then you can just disambiguate the training and the deployment step for forecasters. That is, once you have an EA that is a trustworthy forecaster, you could in principle query them without paying that much attention to scoring rules.
My thoughts are that this problem is, well, not exactly solved, but perhaps solved in practice if you have competent and aligned forecasters, because then you can ask conditional questions which don’t resolve.
Given such and such measures, what will the spread of covid be.
Given the lack of such and such measures, what will the spread of covid be
Then you can still get forecasts for both, even if you only expect the first to go through.
This does require forecasters to give probabilities even when the question they are going to forecast on doesn’t resolve.
This is easier to do with EAs, because then you can just disambiguate the training and the deployment step for forecasters. That is, once you have an EA that is a trustworthy forecaster, you could in principle query them without paying that much attention to scoring rules.