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Bayesian epistemology

TagLast edit: 14 Jul 2022 14:57 UTC by Pablo

Bayesian epistemology (sometimes referred to as Bayesianism) is the broader epistemology informed by Bayes’ theorem.

Further reading

LessWrong (2020) Bayesianism, LessWrong Wiki.

Related entries

Bayes’ theorem | decision theory | epistemic deference | epistemology | rationality

Prior knowl­edge elic­i­ta­tion: The past, pre­sent, and fu­ture [re­view pa­per 2023]

EdoArad10 Jan 2024 9:32 UTC
9 points
1 comment2 min readEA link
(arxiv.org)

Solu­tions to prob­lems with Bayesianism

Bob Jacobs4 Nov 2023 12:15 UTC
27 points
2 comments21 min readEA link

Uncer­tainty over time and Bayesian updating

David Rhys Bernard25 Oct 2023 15:51 UTC
63 points
2 comments28 min readEA link

Con­trol­ling for a thinker’s big idea

Vasco Grilo21 Oct 2023 7:56 UTC
60 points
11 comments8 min readEA link
(magnusvinding.com)

Causes and Uncer­tainty: Re­think­ing Value in Expectation

Bob Fischer11 Oct 2023 9:15 UTC
214 points
29 comments15 min readEA link

We can’t put num­bers on ev­ery­thing and try­ing to weak­ens our col­lec­tive epistemics

ConcernedEAs8 Mar 2023 15:09 UTC
9 points
0 comments11 min readEA link

Bayes is Out-Dated, and You’re Do­ing it Wrong

Anthony Repetto25 Feb 2023 23:25 UTC
−17 points
5 comments4 min readEA link

[Linkpost] Michael Hue­mer on the case for Bayesian statistics

John G. Halstead7 Feb 2023 17:52 UTC
20 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] What do EA’s think about Bayesian in­fer­ences ver­sus other types?

Noah Scales4 Feb 2023 11:09 UTC
4 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Vi­su­al­i­sa­tion of Prob­a­bil­ity Mass

brook23 Jan 2023 19:39 UTC
2 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

[Opz­ionale] Guida alla re­gola di Bayes

EA Italy17 Jan 2023 11:10 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readEA link
(arbital.com)

A new Heuris­tic to Up­date on the Cre­dences of Others

aaron_mai16 Jan 2023 11:35 UTC
22 points
4 comments20 min readEA link

AGI Isn’t Close—Fu­ture Fund Wor­ld­view Prize

Toni MUENDEL18 Dec 2022 16:03 UTC
−8 points
24 comments13 min readEA link

The Geo­met­ric Expectation

Scott Garrabrant23 Nov 2022 18:05 UTC
24 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

EA should blurt

RobBensinger22 Nov 2022 21:57 UTC
155 points
26 comments5 min readEA link

Tyranny of the Epistemic Majority

Scott Garrabrant22 Nov 2022 17:19 UTC
46 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

EV Max­i­miza­tion for Humans

Sharmake3 Sep 2022 23:44 UTC
12 points
0 comments4 min readEA link

Bayes’ rule: Guide

EA Handbook16 Jul 2022 23:00 UTC
8 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(arbital.com)

Global Health & Devel­op­ment—Beyond the Streetlight

Richard Sedlmayr2 Jul 2022 18:56 UTC
36 points
4 comments6 min readEA link

[Question] What should I ask Alan Há­jek, philoso­pher of prob­a­bil­ity, Bayesi­anism, ex­pected value and coun­ter­fat­u­als?

Robert_Wiblin1 Jul 2022 13:23 UTC
25 points
12 comments1 min readEA link

My notes on: Why we can’t take ex­pected value es­ti­mates liter­ally (even when they’re un­bi­ased)

Vasco Grilo18 Apr 2022 13:10 UTC
14 points
0 comments3 min readEA link

Bayes’ The­o­rem explained

Tomer_Goloboy28 Mar 2022 0:40 UTC
4 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

Anec­dotes Can Be Strong Ev­i­dence and Bayes The­o­rem Proves It

FCCC13 Mar 2022 4:37 UTC
15 points
5 comments4 min readEA link

Bayesian Mindset

Holden Karnofsky21 Dec 2021 19:54 UTC
73 points
19 comments25 min readEA link

New Global Pri­ori­ties In­sti­tute work­ing pa­pers—and an up­dated ver­sion of “The case for strong longter­mism”

Global Priorities Institute9 Aug 2021 16:57 UTC
46 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

Defer­ence for Bayesians

John G. Halstead13 Feb 2021 12:33 UTC
101 points
29 comments7 min readEA link

How mod­est should you be?

John G. Halstead28 Dec 2020 17:47 UTC
26 points
10 comments7 min readEA link

[Link] The Op­ti­mizer’s Curse & Wrong-Way Reductions

Chris Smith4 Apr 2019 13:28 UTC
94 points
61 comments1 min readEA link

Against Modest Epistemology

EliezerYudkowsky14 Nov 2017 21:26 UTC
17 points
11 comments15 min readEA link