Tool Summaries

Stating Beliefs

Manifold markets: a play money prediction market with user-created questions. The play money can be redeemed as a charitable donation. Main wiki page.

Metaculus: forecast and view forecasts on a wide range of topics. Main wiki page.

Visualisation of Probability Mass: visualise percentages easily with a 10x10 grid.

Click and drag probability elicitation: generate probability distributions easily with a simple interface.

Model Building (Quantitative)

Guesstimate: a tool for spreadsheet or logic model creation with uncertainty. Main wiki page.

Squiggle: a coding language for generating precise probability distributions, estimates of variables over time, and similar tasks. Main wiki page.

Google Sheets: a collaborative spreadsheet creator integrated with google drive/​docs.

Model Building (Qualitative)

Google Drawing: a collaborative drawing platform integrated with google drive/​docs

Excalidraw: a collaborative shared whiteboard for text and sketching. Good for logic models.

Communication of ideas

Loom: screen capture and audio/​video recording app with easy sharing.

Misc

Pol.is: A surveying platform in which participants submit short text statements, or comments, (<140 characters) which are then sent out semi-randomly to other participants to vote on by clicking agree, disagree or pass.

Pastcasting (Sage): A forecasting platform using resolved questions from other sites (e.g. Metaculus) to shorten the feedback loop and practice forecasting, particularly over long time horizons.

Vodle: A collective decision making platform where participants can vote on questions using a voting system that is fairer than majority voting and more efficient than traditional consensus procedures.

External links

Related Entries

manifold | metaculus | guesstimate | fermi estimate | cause prioritization | expected value | forecasting | impact assessment | model uncertainty | prediction markets | squiggle