A stray observation from reading Scott Alexander’s post on his 2023 forecasting competition:
Scott singles out some forecasters who had particularly strong performance both this year and last year (he notes that being near the very top in one year seems noisy, with a significant role for luck), or otherwise seem likely to have strong signals of genuine predictive outperformance. These are:
- Samotsvety
- Metaculus
- possibly Peter Wildeford—
possibly Ezra Karger (Research Director at FRI).
I note that the first 3 above all have higher AI catastrophic/extinction risk estimates than the average superforecaster (I note Ezra given his relevance to the topic at hand, but don’t know his personal estimates)
Obviously, this is a low n sample, and very confounded by community effects and who happened to catch Scott’s eye (and confirmation bias in me noticing it, insofar as I also have higher risk estimates). But I’d guess there’s at least a decent chance that both (a) there are groups and aggregation methods that reliably outperform superforecasters and (b) these give higher estimates of AI risk.
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I DM’d yesterday; today I received a mana loan for my invested amount, for immediate donation, due for repayment Jan 2, 202, with a requirement to not sell out of large positions before May.
There’s now a Google form: https://forms.gle/XjegTMHf7oZVdLZF7