Was I the only one who found it coincidental that there was this conversation about a more technologically advanced intelligence colonizing the galaxy just a few months after the US government released a report acknowledging we have no explanations for all the UFO sightings over the past decades? It seems like perhaps life on another planet beat Holden’s most important century to the punch. Maybe we are their simulation? I never thought much about UFOs before 2021, but given the evidence that has come to light, it seems like Occam’s razor suggests a vastly more technologically sophisticated intelligence is already on earth.
Michael_2358
Karma: 166
The health of millennials
Public Health Research
remittances:wave as immigration:startup x?
Thanks for your post. You offer valuable thoughts, and I only have one small additional one. Having now been through a stage of my career where I have done hiring, I know the process is way more arbitrary (and less sophisticated) than I previously realized. When I was younger I used to take job rejections way more personally than I should have based on what I know now. There are all sorts of sub-optimal reasons hiring decisions are made, and applicants should not take rejection as a strong signal about their skills, talents, or future potential (IMO). Still, I do think it’s important that hiring managers be as respectful as possible and give feedback when they are able.
If I could give advice to my 22-year-old self it would be, “if you want to work for a certain organization or in a certain field badly enough, just keep persisting through every rejection. The act of persistence alone will increase your probability of working in that area. Also, put yourself in the shoes of the hiring manager. What do you think they want to hear from an ideal prospective applicant? Don’t lie or mislead, but if you really think you will be a good fit for a position, freely tell your interviewers how devoted you will be to the work. They want to hear passion.”
It’s interesting that the time of “life getting better” is basically the same time as “humans increasingly using fossil fuels.” I have heard the argument (which I am not yet educated enough to have an opinion on) that all of the economic growth and improvements in standards of living over the last few hundred years have been enabled by cheap, abundant, dense, and easily transportable energy, aka fossil fuels.
Therefore, one reason we could be on the cusp of a crazier time is that the world is basically telling fossil fuel companies to limit new exploration and drilling while we don’t really yet have a replacement ready. To be clear, I am an environmentalist and think we do need to limit and reduce fossil fuel use and ultimately get to net zero emissions by 2050 as a planet. But the magnitude of this task may be under-appreciated, and the likelihood that the energy transition produces chaotic and negative side effects may similarly be under-appreciated.
Best practices for organizational effectiveness
Bloomberg is estimating the recent events have caused SBF’s net worth to decline 94% from $15.6B to $1B. I think they are suggesting Alameda and FTX have zero value. I hope that is not accurate. In combination with the 75% decline in Meta it would mean a lot less funding for EA causes until new mega donors are recruited.
What is the vote with the “x” right next to the karma vote?
Both low interest rates and high valuations for more speculative financial assets are a reflection of more demand for financial assets than supply. They are both functions of the overall level of savings in the economy, which is the source of demand for financial assets. Demographics, globalization, and inequality drove a 40 year boom in the aggregate level of savings that peaked during the pandemic. This era is now over, largely because of changes in demographics and globalization, but also because of a need for more physical investment in the real economy (energy, housing, etc). This physical investment will need to come from the more limited pool of aggregate savings, leaving less for financial assets. I have written several longer papers on this if you would like to discuss further.
About a year ago there was discussion on Twitter about how EA was highly concentrated in crypto and tech stocks. Someone asked if it could/should be hedged. The reply was that there was not appetite for hedging. I remember thinking to myself that I’m sure the ultimate beneficiaries of the EA causes would have appetite, but clearly it was not their decision, it was SBFs. I guess someone could ask if, from a moral perspective, he should have looked at the decision about whether or not to hedge from the perspective of the ultimate beneficiaries.
Have you seen the 2020 documentary The Phenomenon? Compelling film on this topic. Clearly there are a lot of sightings concentrated around nuclear facilities and bodies of water, which is disturbing under any number of explanations.
This is terrifying.
Does anyone know if pandemic prevention PAC that SBF had been funding (Protecting our Future?) is going to live on? Seems like it should.
Veganism, Optimal Health, and Intellectual Honesty
Thank you! This exactly what I was looking for.
I agree that is the central point. I also agree going vegan is the morally correct thing to do even if it comes at a cost to health.
My point is that if animal advocates have a strategic goal of reducing consumption of animal products, I think they would be better served by being intellectually honest and sober rather than untrustworthy.
The period from which your data comes is anomalous. 2014-2021 was a massive financial asset bubble and VC backed startups were at the center of it. It will go down as one of the craziest periods of speculative mania and loose financial conditions in history.
Entrepreneurship is about to revert to its norm of being A LOT more challenging than people today currently appreciate. Do not make a career decision to become an entrepreneur based on an overly rosy view of your probability of success that is informed by recent times. Financial conditions are cyclical.
I agree on the challenges of deploying results. I think the primary value in public health research is empowering individuals to make good decisions for themselves. For example, sites like WedMD and Healthline add a lot of value for individuals trying to improve their families’ health. I don’t think the answer is already out there on obesity and many other chronic diseases. If it is, I would appreciate someone directing me to it. :)