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Nathan Young

Karma: 14,774

Create prediction markets and forecasting questions on AI risk and biorisk. I also work part-time at a prediction market.

Use my connections on Twitter to raise the profile of these predictions and increase the chance that decision-makers discuss these issues.

FTX Cri­sis. What we know and some fore­casts on what will hap­pen next

Nathan Young8 Nov 2022 19:16 UTC
366 points
320 comments3 min readEA link

Time Ar­ti­cle Dis­cus­sion—“Effec­tive Altru­ist Lead­ers Were Re­peat­edly Warned About Sam Bankman-Fried Years Be­fore FTX Col­lapsed”

Nathan Young15 Mar 2023 12:40 UTC
241 points
174 comments4 min readEA link
(time.com)

I feel anx­ious that there is all this money around. Let’s talk about it

Nathan Young31 Mar 2022 10:44 UTC
162 points
61 comments2 min readEA link

Some up­dates to my think­ing in light of the FTX col­lapse by Owen Cot­ton Bar­ratt [Link Post]

Nathan Young29 Mar 2023 15:23 UTC
133 points
16 comments1 min readEA link
(docs.google.com)

[Question] What EA pro­jects could grow to be­come megapro­jects, even­tu­ally spend­ing $100m per year?

Nathan Young6 Aug 2021 11:24 UTC
131 points
173 comments1 min readEA link

Works in Progress: The Long Jour­ney to Do­ing Good Bet­ter by Dustin Moskovitz [Linkpost]

Nathan Young14 Feb 2024 19:43 UTC
118 points
3 comments1 min readEA link
(medium.com)

[Question] How could we have avoided this?

Nathan Young12 Nov 2022 12:45 UTC
116 points
110 comments1 min readEA link

The World in 2029

Nathan Young2 Mar 2024 18:03 UTC
88 points
10 comments1 min readEA link

Post­ing More Bet­ter: So­cial Me­dia Rules of Thumb

Nathan Young3 May 2022 17:06 UTC
86 points
5 comments7 min readEA link

It’s okay to leave

Nathan Young23 Dec 2022 18:51 UTC
78 points
4 comments4 min readEA link
(nathanpmyoung.substack.com)

Elon Musk donates $5.7 Billion, will work with Igor Kurganov [Cross­post]

Nathan Young16 Feb 2022 12:32 UTC
76 points
11 comments3 min readEA link

Po­lis (Cluster) Poll: What are our opinions on EA, gov­er­nance and FTX? (Now with vi­su­al­i­sa­tion)

Nathan Young19 Nov 2022 11:52 UTC
71 points
35 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] What is the most press­ing fea­ture to add to the fo­rum? Upvote for in gen­eral, agreevote to agree with rea­son­ing.

Nathan Young5 Oct 2022 15:38 UTC
66 points
170 comments1 min readEA link

A List of Things EAs should and shouldn’t do, at­tempt 2.1

Nathan Young16 Sep 2023 11:11 UTC
60 points
26 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] What spe­cific changes should we as a com­mu­nity make to the effec­tive al­tru­ism com­mu­nity? [Stage 1]

Nathan Young5 Dec 2022 9:04 UTC
58 points
172 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] Who does work you are thank­ful for?

Nathan Young23 May 2023 14:03 UTC
56 points
7 comments1 min readEA link

On Loyalty

Nathan Young20 Feb 2023 10:29 UTC
56 points
19 comments15 min readEA link

Sum­maries are underrated

Nathan Young1 Sep 2022 22:34 UTC
53 points
23 comments7 min readEA link

[Question] Should we push for a rapid malaria vac­cine rol­lout?

Nathan Young13 Oct 2023 14:56 UTC
50 points
7 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] Why aren’t EA fun­ders fund­ing the NTI?

Nathan Young28 Feb 2022 14:46 UTC
49 points
11 comments1 min readEA link