Through thinking about these comments, I did remember an EA Forum thread in which ii) and iii) were argued about from 4 years ago: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ajPY6zxSFr3BbMsb5/are-givewell-top-charities-too-speculative
It’s worth reading the comment section in full. Turns out my position has been consistent for the past 4 years (though I should have remembered that thread!).
Through thinking about these comments, I did remember an EA Forum thread in which ii) and iii) were argued about from 4 years ago: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ajPY6zxSFr3BbMsb5/are-givewell-top-charities-too-speculative
It’s worth reading the comment section in full. Turns out my position has been consistent for the past 4 years (though I should have remembered that thread!).