Fixing the “I pit my evidence against itself” problem is easy enough once I’ve recognized that I’m doing this (or so my visualizer suggests); the tricky part is recognizing that I’m doing it.
One obvious exercise for me to do here is to mull on the difference between uncertainty that feels like it comes from lack of knowledge, and uncertainty that feels like it comes from tension/conflict in the evidence. I think there’s a subjective difference, that I just missed in this case, and that I can perhaps become much better at detecting, in the wake of this harsh lesson.
Something that helps me with problems like this is to verbalise the hypotheses I’m weighing up. Observing them seems to help me notice gaps.
Something that helps me with problems like this is to verbalise the hypotheses I’m weighing up. Observing them seems to help me notice gaps.