To add to Eli’s comment, I think on such complex topics, it’s just common for even personal estimates to fluctuate quite a bit. For example, here is an excerpt from footnote 181 of Carlsmith report:
[...] And my central estimate varies between ~1-10% depending on my mood, what considerations are salient to me at the time, and so forth. This instability is yet another reason not to put too much weight on these numbers.
To add to Eli’s comment, I think on such complex topics, it’s just common for even personal estimates to fluctuate quite a bit. For example, here is an excerpt from footnote 181 of Carlsmith report: