I think to properly model Ord’s risk estimates, you have to account for the fact that they incorporate uncertainty over the transition rate. Otherwise I think you’ll overestimate the rate at which risk compounds over time, conditional on no catastrophe so far.
I think to properly model Ord’s risk estimates, you have to account for the fact that they incorporate uncertainty over the transition rate. Otherwise I think you’ll overestimate the rate at which risk compounds over time, conditional on no catastrophe so far.