I agree the future constraints are what mostly matter—I speculate about them in the original post.
I also agree earning to give is still useful—simply investing the money and donating when there is more capacity seems like a decent option; and medium donors can play a useful role as angel donors and people matching OP.
I think I’m less confident than you there will be convergence in the next 10yr. I think it’s fairly likely that another 1-3 multibillionaires start significantly funding EA issues, which could mean the amount of funding continues to grow rapidly.
The number of people needs to grow significantly faster than the amount of funding to significantly decrease the absolute size of the gap.
I do expect some convergence eventually—it seems easier to 3x or 10x the number of people than the amount of capital—though it’s not obvious.
I also agree there’s a decent chance we discover a fairly effective longtermist money-pit.
I agree the future constraints are what mostly matter—I speculate about them in the original post.
I also agree earning to give is still useful—simply investing the money and donating when there is more capacity seems like a decent option; and medium donors can play a useful role as angel donors and people matching OP.
I think I’m less confident than you there will be convergence in the next 10yr. I think it’s fairly likely that another 1-3 multibillionaires start significantly funding EA issues, which could mean the amount of funding continues to grow rapidly.
The number of people needs to grow significantly faster than the amount of funding to significantly decrease the absolute size of the gap.
I do expect some convergence eventually—it seems easier to 3x or 10x the number of people than the amount of capital—though it’s not obvious.
I also agree there’s a decent chance we discover a fairly effective longtermist money-pit.